Copper: What will be the supply and demand of copper mines in 2025?

Compared to this year, the tension over copper mines next year has not eased, and due to the construction of new smelters, the supply-demand gap has widened. With such expectations, the negotiation work for long-term orders next year will be even more difficult, and TC prices may show a significant decline compared to this year. Therefore, domestic refineries should take proactive measures to gain more control in the negotiation game in the fourth quarter.

Entering the fourth quarter, overseas mining companies and domestic smelters are about to launch negotiations on the long-term benchmark for imported copper concentrate by 2025. However, the tight supply and demand expectations for copper mines this year have led to a rapid decline in spot TC, with the lowest even falling to negative values, undoubtedly putting significant pressure on next year's long-term TC.

Previously, Antofagasta finalized mid year long order TC/RC at domestic smelters at $23.25/dry ton and $2.325/pound. However, this week CSPT raised its fourth quarter spot procurement guidance TC/RC from $30/ton and $3/pound in the third quarter to $35/ton and $3.5/pound, both significantly lower than the long unit prices of $80/ton and $8/pound in 2024. As a result, the market is paying more attention to the long-term price of copper mines next year. If it is significantly reduced, the production pressure on smelters will become increasingly prominent.

Therefore, before the negotiation work begins, this article summarizes the potential new production capacity of global copper mines in 2025, and constructs the supply and demand balance of copper mines for next year based on the corresponding incremental expectations, in order to provide reference for the possible direction of processing fees.